Good science, bad science. What I learned in lockdown.
This page is where I've captured links to some articles I've read. It's in chronological order so if you want the historical record, start at the top and go down. If you want the most recent articles, scroll to the bottom.
Where it works, I've referenced a particular article in a blog somewhere. But this page is mostly to record what happened when.
10 March 2020: Tomas Pueyo's was the first blog where I'd read the statistical analysis of what strategies were being considered, and the impact of not restricting movement.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
16 March 2020: This is the article where Imperial College explained that without intervention, the UK might see half a million deaths. They predicted that even with lockdown, we might see waves of restrictions, lowering the restrictions and then a wave of infections again.
19 March 2020: Tomas Pueyo followed his first blog with this, showing how strong measures are needed initially but the ongoing management may take months.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
20 March 2020: Impact of an individual in spreading covid 19 in South Korea. Shows what the impact probably was of letting rugby six nations at Twickenham and Cheltenham Gold Cup go ahead in early March
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html
23 March 2020: UK lockdown brought into force.
24 March 2020: University of Oxford modellers ask whether a large number of people in the UK have already had the Coronavirus, which would have a massive impact on the accuracy of modelling (and showing up that with so little testing, we don't know).
https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b
26 March 2020: This was challenged by epidemiologist Adam Kucharski, who believed the Oxford assumptions were flawed and more accurate assumption could be made.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/26/virus-infection-data-coronavirus-modelling
27 March 2020: How massive changes like lockdown affect people, and how not to be worried about productivity and trying to stay 'normal'
https://www.chronicle.com/article/Why-You-Should-Ignore-All-That/248366
8 April 2020: The IHME in the US predict that the UK's death toll will be the worst in Europe. Their research is heavily based on access to ICU beds.
9 April 2020: The debate is beginning to move to what would trigger a reduction in restrictions and what might those be.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/09/lifting-lockdown-uk-options-graded-return-normality
17 April 2020: The state of play with testing both for current infection and for antibodies post-infection
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51943612
18 April 2020: What scientists knew and when, and different government responses to the increasing impact of the virus